Climatic variation ; Decision aid ; Drought ; Forecast ; Global change ; Natural hazards ; Uncertainty ; Water ; Water management ; Water resources
Water management is choice in face of bounded uncertainty. This papre presents some theories, as well as 3 principles of uncertainty, namely : of the minimum and maximum of uncertainty and of its immutability. Examples are cited of the undesirable
consequences of a failure to heed these principles. Methods of rational decisionmaking in conditions of uncertainty are presented, while methodological considerations are supported by examples of applications in water management.
This paper argues for explicit assessments of uncertainty in environmental data and models as a necessary, although not a sufficient, condition for balancing uncertain scientific arguments against uncertain social, ethical, moral and legal arguments
in managing environmental systems. In particular, this paper aims to : demonstrate the importance of assessing uncertainty within a realist research framework; consider the nature of scientific uncertainty as the basis for developing methodologies
that question belief; and explore some important aspects of a methodology for evaluating uncertainties in environmental research.
Prospects for the open treatment of uncertainty in environmental research
Data processing ; Decision making process ; Environment ; Forecast ; Model ; Research ; Risk ; Uncertainty
This paper argues for more open treatments of uncertainty in environmental research. Such openness requires an appreciation of the social and psychological causes of uncertainty, the role of observations as imperfect and contingent expressions
of visible events, and the myriad ways in which scientific information can be misinterpreted, misused, or sidelined in environmental decision-making. The paper begins with a discussion of the nature and causes of uncertainty in environmental research
. A review of current treatments of uncertainty is followed by an analysis of the source-based approach to assessing uncertainty. Prospects for the open treatment of uncertainty are then discussed in terms of circumventing the three ‘myths of uncertainty
Uncertainty in regional climate modelling : a review
Climate ; Climatic change ; Global change ; Greenhouse effect ; Human impact ; Model ; Regional climate ; Scale ; Statistical bias ; Uncertainty
In this paper, the cascade of uncertainty from emissions scenario to global model to regional climate model is explored. The initial part of the discussion focuses on uncertainties associated with human action, such as emissions of greenhouse gases
. In the second part of the discussion, uncertainties associated with climate modelling are explored with emphasis on the implications for regional scale analysis. Such uncertainties include parameterizations and resolutions, initial and boundary conditions
inherited from the driving global model, intermodel variability and issues surrounding the validation or verification of models. The paper concludes with a critique of approaches employed to quantify or cater for uncertainties highlighting the strengths
Research policy and review 34 : the development of ideas of uncertainty representation
Numerous ideas are adressed, which can supplement the basic approaches to uncertainty associated with objective and subjective probability. They are gleaned from many disciplines, including philosophy, mathematics, and artificial intelligence
. This review of the literature highlights the need for additional research on a number of topics, and the synthesis of new approaches to uncertainty with more traditional decision analysis techniques.
The representation of knowledge and uncertainty in database of GIS geological maps
In this paper an analysis is carried out on the phases that characterize the acquisition of structural-geological knowledge and related different levels of uncertainty. Methodologies to represent geological uncertainty in GIS databases
Optimum firm location under factor-price uncertainty
This paper presents a cost-minimizing location model to investigate the theoretical impacts and implication of factor-price uncertainty on the optimum location decision of the firm in linear space. It will be shown that increased input price
uncertainty leads the firm to move its factory towards the site of the price uncertain imput.
Predicting regional climate change : living with uncertainty
Regional climate prediction is not an insoluble problem, but it is a problem characterized by inherent uncertainty. There are 2 sources of this uncertainty : the unpredictability of the climatic and global systems. So this review considers
the implications of climatic and global system unpredictability for regional climate prediction. Consequently the AA. regard regional climate prediction as a cascade of uncertainty. They understand regional climate change in terms of changes in the general
Advances in the study of uncertainty quantification of large-scale hydrological modeling system
Algorithm ; Concept ; Hydrology ; Land atmosphere interaction ; Methodology ; Model ; Quantitative analysis ; Uncertainty
This paper systematically reviewed the recent advances in the study of the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model on the basis of uncertainty sources (input data and parameters, model structure, analysis method
and the initial and boundary conditions). Also, the shortcomings and insufficiencies in the uncertainty analysis for complex hydrological models are pointed out. And then a new uncertainty quantification platform PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification methods
were introduced, which will be a powerful tool and platform for uncertainty analysis of large-scale complex hydrological models. Finally, some future perspectives on uncertainty quantification are put forward.
Entropy ; Estimation ; Household ; Methodology ; Model ; Modelling ; Population ; Spatial analysis ; Spatial distribution ; Tennessee ; Uncertainty ; United States of America
This article presents a new dasymetric methodology—the penalized maximum entropy dasymetric model that enables sources of uncertainty to be represented and modeled. It allows a rich array of data to be included, with disparate spatial resolutions
, attribute resolutions, and uncertainties. It also allows a rich array of data to be included, with disparate spatial resolutions, attribute resolutions, and uncertainties. It concludes by presenting an application that that includes household-level survey
Geographical information science : geostatistics and uncertainty
In this brief article, the research currently being conducted by the GIS community involving geostatistics and error modelling is reviewed. First, a basic outline of a geostatistical approach to the assessment of uncertainty is given. The review