Regional climateprediction is not an insoluble problem, but it is a problem characterized by inherent uncertainty. There are 2 sources of this uncertainty : the unpredictability of the climatic and global systems. So this review considers
the implications of climatic and global system unpredictability for regional climateprediction. Consequently the AA. regard regional climateprediction as a cascade of uncertainty. They understand regional climate change in terms of changes in the general
Numerous studies of traditional agricultural communities have shown that farmers already often manage climatic risk through traditional methods of climateprediction and ritual. This local knowledge may or may not accurately predictclimatic events
, but it characterizes the demand for climate information and indicates how new climate forecasts might be received. Based on ethnographic data, this paper describes traditional climateprediction methods of farmers in Tlaxcala, Mexico to illustrate the relevance
of local climate knowledge for seasonal forecasting.
prediction models. The physical parameterization approach implemented first in climate models, is now applied in a useful way to everyday agricultural management.
The atmosphere exchanges heat, moisture and momentum with other climate subsystems. This paper describes some applications of climate models in agriculture and puts forward the argument, that recent climate models are very close to numerical weather
Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients
Biogeography ; Cartography ; Climatic variation ; Ecological niche ; Geographical information system ; Habitat ; Model ; Numerical data ; Vegetation ; Vegetation map
the relationship of regional-scale predictive mapping to the global scale modelling of vegetation in relation to climate, and to animal habitat modelling.
This article discusses the development of predictive vegetation mapping especially in the context of remote sensing-based vegetation mapping. The A. will illustrate the dependence of predictive vegetation mapping on ecological niche theory, and show
Seasonal prediction of Korean regional climate from preceding large-scale climate indices
Climat régional ; Climatologie ; Corée du Sud ; Indice climatique ; Précipitation ; Prévision ; Température ; Variation saisonnière
Climatic index ; Climatology ; Forecast ; Precipitation ; Regional climate ; Seasonal variation ; South Korea ; Temperature
Essai de prévision climatique à échéance de deux mois, à partir d'une régression linéaire multiple et de la recherche des meilleures prédicteurs. La situation météorologique observée au cours des mois précédents explique 18 à 42 % de la variance des
The impact of weather and climate on transport in the UK
Climate ; Forecast;Prediction ; Impact ; Technology ; Transport ; United Kingdom ; Weather type
Climat ; Impact ; Prévision ; Royaume-Uni ; Technologie ; Transport ; Type de temps
An attempt is made to classify the impact of weather and climate upon air, rail, road and water transport by considering for each : climatic design and required levels of maintenance; weather sensitivity and thresholds; weather forecasting and new
Climate change prediction over complex areas : spatial variability of uncertainties and predictions over the Pyrenees from a set of regional climate models
Changement climatique ; Changement global ; Espagne ; Europe ; France ; Modèle mathématique ; Précipitation ; Prévision ; Pyrénées ; Siècle 21 ; Température ; Tendance du climat ; Variation spatiale
Climatic change ; Climatic trend ; Europe ; Forecast ; France ; Global change ; Mathematical model ; Precipitation ; Pyrénées ; Spain ; Spatial variation ; Temperature ; Twenty-first century
Application of artificial neural networks in climatology: a case study of sunspot prediction and solar climate trends
Climatic variation ; Climatology ; Forecast ; Global change ; Methodology ; Radiation ; Solar activity
or sunspots on the surface of the Sun, with sunspot numbers directly related to the level of solar activity. In this paper the AA. show some preliminary findings in using feedforward neural networks for the prediction of peak sunspot cycle amplitude
and discuss the climatic implications of the findings.
Predicted effects of climate warming on the commercial culture of the Channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus
permits the prediction of changes of this distribution resulting from climate warming.
The AA. review the thermal requirements for growth in catfish and examine the role that climate (air temperature and precipitation) plays in limiting the distribution of profitable fish farms. A model is constructed from these relationships which
Using mountain regions from around the world, the A. discusses controls of mountain climate and scales of climate features, and evaluates evidence of past climatic conditions.―(DWG)
Sensitivity of corn and soybean yield in Illinois to air temperature and precipitation : the potential impact of future climate change
Agricultural production ; Agroclimatology ; Atmospheric circulation ; Climatic change ; Drought ; Forecast ; Illinois ; Impact ; Maize ; Model ; Precipitation ; Soya bean ; Temperature ; United States of America
By identifying specific monthly climate variables (mean daily temperature and precipitation) to which corn and soybean yield is sensitive, this study compares monthly regional General Circulation Model (GCM) predictions with the monthly climate
variables to which corn and soybean yield is sensitive to predict crop yield under future climate. Given the regional GCM prediction for increased summer temperatures and summer drought, both corn and soybean yield will likely decrease under future climate
The aim of this study is to model and elucidate the contributions of climate and topography to the distribution of a priority blanket bog habitat in Ireland, and to examine howt his might inform the development of a climate change predictive
capacity for peat-lands in Ireland. The results confirm that this habitat distribution in general can be modelled well using the non-collinear climatic and terrain variables tested at the grid resolution used. Mapping the GLM-predicted distribution
to the observed distribution produced useful results in replicating the projected occurrence of the habitat distribution over an extensive area. The methods developed will usefully inform future climate change predictive modelling for Ireland.
Atmospheric circulation ; Climate ; Climatic variability ; Forecast ; Global change ; Human impact ; Mathematical model ; Model
the climate's behaviour, but also to explore the possibility of future climate developments being predicted.
In this paper the nature, state and variability of the climate system are described briefly. Of particular importance in open systems such as components of the climatic system is feedback. Mathematical models provide a new way to not only understand
Global terrestrial vegetation prediction: the use and abuse of climate and applications models
Bioclimatology ; Classification ; Climatic variation ; Forecast ; Forest ; Global change ; Greenhouse effect ; Model ; Vegetation
The Holdridge life-zone classification scheme is examined as an example of an impacts (or application) model which is already being applied to output from global climate models representing both present-day and greenhouse-warmed environments. Very
Agricultural practice ; Catena ; Climatic variation ; Forecast ; Global change ; Land use ; Rill wash ; Slope ; Soil erosion
Predicting the soil erosion response requires consideration of both direct and indirect influences of climate. Models of climate change provide input data about temperature, rainfall and wind strength, but the indirect influences of climate
represented through changes in land use, crop selection and farming practice will be more difficult to predict. Approaches to the forecasting of prospective soil erosion must focus at the interaction between affected environmental processes and human-induced