Regional climate prediction is not an insoluble problem, but it is a problem characterized by inherent uncertainty. There are 2 sources of this uncertainty : the unpredictability of the climatic and global systems. So this review considers
the implications of climatic and global system unpredictability for regional climate prediction. Consequently the AA. regard regional climate prediction as a cascade of uncertainty. They understand regional climate change in terms of changes in the general
Bank recession processes, rates, and prediction, lake Sakakawea, North Dakota, U.S.A.
Study of the erosion processes and erosion rates and development of a bank recession predictive model for lake Sakakawea. The first part of this paper summarizes the results of that study, leading to the potential for a predictive capability.
The effect on attribute prediction of location uncertainty in spatial data
The AA. propose a statistical model for incorporating location error into spatial data analysis. They investigate the effect of location error on the spatial lag, the covariance function, and optimal spatial linear prediction.
Runoff and soil erosion from areas of burnt scrub : comparison of experimental results with those predicted by the WEPP model
The effects of burning on runoff and soil erosion from scrub-bearing hillslopes in northwest Spain were investigated by monitoring of experimental plots over a 4-year period. In this study the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) hillslope model
was used to predict runoff and erosion from each of the experimental plots, and predicted values were compared with those observed in the field.
Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients
This article discusses the development of predictive vegetation mapping especially in the context of remote sensing-based vegetation mapping. The A. will illustrate the dependence of predictive vegetation mapping on ecological niche theory, and show
the relationship of regional-scale predictive mapping to the global scale modelling of vegetation in relation to climate, and to animal habitat modelling.
Why soil erosion models over-predict small soil losses and under-predict large soil losses
The hypothesis of this study is that the consistently observed bias for soil erosion models to over-predict low measured rates and under-predict large measured rates is due, at least in part, to the fact that the models are deterministic in nature
Spatial prediction of river channel topography by kriging
, and how the choice of a trend model affects the variogram of the residuals from that trend. Similarly, the AA. show how decomposing kriging predictions into their trend and residual components can yield useful information on channel morphology. Cross
-validation analyses involving different data configurations and kriging variants indicate that kriging is quite robust and that survey density is the primary control on the accuracy of bed elevation predictions. The root mean-square error of these predictions
is directly proportional to the spacing between surveyed cross-sections, even in a reconfigured channel with a relatively simple morphology; sophisticated methods of spatial prediction are no substitute for field data.
préférentiel des prédicteurs, réalisé par 6 algorithmes possédant chacun leur intérêt et leurs limites propres. La seconde partie aborde le problème délicat du nombre optimal de prédicteurs assurant le meilleur compromis entre l'effet positif déterminé par
l'apport informationnel complémentaire d'un nouveau prédicteur, et l'effet négatif lié à l'accumulation des erreurs d'estimation. (JPB).
Progress in the use of drainage network indices for rainfall-runoff modelling and runoff prediction
This article reviews progress in the derivation of drainage network indices and their application in modelling the rainfall-runoff relation and predicting runoff characteristics, discusses remaining problems and proposes directions for future
Seasonal ground frost occurrence : developing a statistically-based predictive model
Results suggest that although frost penetration can often be approximated on the basis of freezing degree days, the last frost observed and a qualitative assessment of soil moisture, the overall accuracy of the predictive model is undermined
Combining soil map and soil analysis for improved yield prediction
Exploratory study on how the farmer can decide, which of the three alternatives (soil map, soil analysis or their combination) should be used as a basis for predicting the most appropriate agricultural land use or management. It is illustrated
Analytical predictions of beach profile change in response to a sea-level rise in Geomorphology of changing coastlines.
Recent studies predict a sea-level rise of the order of 0.5 to 3.5 m by the year 2100. Beach profile translation and coastal erosion will, in most cases, accompany the rising level of the sea. Calculations for estimating potential erosion on a sandy
Possible effects of recent changes in sea level on the biota of a Caribbean reef flat and predicted effects of rising sea levels in Proceedings. Volume 3. Symposia and seminars.
Prediction of the changes in biota that would result on a semi-intertidal reef flat of Panama from a slight rise in sea level.