Afrique du Sud ; Années 1970 ; Années 1990 ; Circulation atmosphérique ; Circulation océanique ; Modèle couplé ; Précipitation ; Simulation ; Siècle 21 ; Variation saisonnière
The study focuses on rainfall changes over South Africa as simulated from the ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model ARPEGE/OPA, under the IPCC B2 scenario. Simulations for 1970-1999 are compared with observed data in order to assess
the ability of the model to reproduce Soouth African climate. Spatial patterns ans seasonal variations are correctly simulated, but precipitation amounts are overestimated. Projections for the XXI century display a small decrease of both the rainfall amounts