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  • New estimates of permafrost evolution during the last 21 kyears in Eurasia using numerical modelling
  • Déglaciation ; Eurasie ; Modèle ; Modèle numérique ; Pergélisol ; Périglaciaire ; Température de l'air
  • Air temperature ; Deglaciation ; Eurasia ; Model ; Numerical model ; Periglacial features ; Permafrost
  • The evolution of past permafrost since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is simulated using the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Permafrost (VAMPER) model. This method is different from a proxy-based approach which translates reconstructed air temperatures
  • to estimate past permafrost extent and thickness. First, a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the behaviour of the model. Then 5 case studies within Eurasia were performed using mean annual ground surface temperatures derived from an Earth system
  • model as the surface forcing. In Central and West Siberia, the simulated LGM permafrost thicknesses agree well with previous estimates. The LGM and present-day estimates for South Russia are underestimated, which is likely due to a highly simplified land
  • -atmosphere coupling. In West and Central Europe, however, the VAMPER model was not able to produce permafrost during LGM conditions, which is due to previously recognised biases of the Earth system model.
  • 2013
  • Basin modelling of temperature and heat flow distributions and permafrost evolution, Urengoy and Kuyumbinskaya areas, Siberia
  • Flux thermique ; Modèle ; Modèle numérique ; Paléoclimat ; Pergélisol ; Périglaciaire ; Russie d'Asie ; Sibir' ; Température ; Zone froide
  • Asian part of Russia ; Cold area ; Heat flow ; Model ; Numerical model ; Palaeoclimate ; Periglacial features ; Permafrost ; Siberia ; Temperature
  • The thermal history and permafrost evolution in the Urengoy area of the West Siberian basin and in the Kuyumbinskaya area of the Siberian platform during the Pliocene-Quaternary were reconstructed numerically in a forward model from 3.4 Ma using
  • the software package FROST, part of the basin modelling system GALO. Calculations suggest that variations in rock composition with depth strongly influenced permafrost evolution. The effect of cooling is greater in the Kuyumbinskaya area, which has a thinner
  • sedimentary cover, than in the more northern Urengoy area. The model estimates permafrost depth and the stability zone of methane gas hydrate. An increase in salt content in porewater lowers the melting temperature of ice. The modelling demonstrates
  • 2013