This study examines methods of forecasting urban spatial structure from information on energy supply and cost. Five general forecasting approaches are identified, of which four are represented in the literature (Leibnizianforecasts, Lockean
A regional forecasting model for construction activity
This paper presents a new, comprehensive and detailed model of construction activity. The model is intended primarily for forecasting applications. The model generates forecasts of new construction starts for each of the 50 states of the United
States. Forecasts are made for 29 types of structures. The paper presents evidence that the structure of the determinants of construction activity varies across regions within the United States. Thus, prior models of construction, based only on national
time-series data, may be subject to aggregation bias. Evaluation of the model's forecasts indicates that the model outperforms simpler forecasting methods.
Usable science : an assessment of long-term seasonal forecasts amongst farmers in the rural areas of South Africa
Agriculture ; Agroclimatology ; Climate ; Forecast ; Rural area ; Seasonal variation ; South Africa
The science of long-term climate seasonal forecasts is well developed. While much is done to produce forecasts little has been done to assess their uptake and value particularly for rural farmers in South Africa. A study of North West Province
indicated that the constraints placed on developing farmers reduced their usage of forecasts. Suggestions to improve the situation are offered. - (AJC)
A Bayesian forecasting approach to constructing regional input-output based employment multipliers
Economic structure ; Employment ; Forecast ; Input-output model ; Model ; Multiplicator ; Oklahoma ; Regional economy ; United States of America
A Bayesian mixed estimation framework is used to examine the forecast accuracy of alternative closures of an input-output model for the Oklahoma economy. The closures correspond to textbook Type I and Type II multipliers, as well as variations
of extended IO and Type IV multipliers. Relative forecast performance of the alternative IO model closures determines which set of multipliers should be used for impact analysis. The exercise reveals differences in forecast accuracy across alternative IO model
Seasonal forecasting of African rainfall : prediction, responses and household food security
Africa ; Correlation ; Eastern Africa ; Food security ; Forecast ; Methodology ; Model ; Multivariate analysis ; Precipitation ; Resource management ; Sahel ; Seasonal variation ; South Africa ; Vulnerability
This paper reviews recent developments in both climate prediction and the use of climate forecasts with an emphasis on promoting household food security. The process of compiling and distributing seasonal forecasts is outlined. Components
of operational seasonal forecasts for Africa (Sahel, East Africa and southern Africa) are examined. The utility of climate forecasts is described against the background of household vulnerability and strategies to cope with food insecurity. Climate forecasts may
processes, and, to prevent new environmental problems, forecasting techniques are needed, which deal with uncertainties. It is a rather long interactive policy exercise.
Theoretical and methodological promises of geomorphological forecasting
Concept ; Forecast;Prediction ; Geographical information system ; Geomorphology ; Geosystem ; Methodology ; Model ; Statistics
The purpose of this paper is to formally outline some fundamental theoretical and methodological promises of geomorphological forecasting. It is shown that there is a conceptual link between field studies of spatial structures and landscape
Any regional planning must take into account floods forecasting. However, the problem is complicated by the diversity of forecasting-levels: short term forecasting in real time, to allow evacuation of the threatened population| long term forecasting
Accuracy of forecasting in a Nordic paper mill's supply chain : a case study
Finland ; Forecast ; Industry ; Paper industry ; Research technique ; Supply chain ; Transport cost
The article compares the accuracy of forecasted and actual supply chain cost and price factors in a Nordic paper mill's sales to customers in two large European countries. There is a need for more reliable forecasting methods in the paper industry