This study examines methods of forecasting urban spatial structure from information on energy supply and cost. Five general forecasting approaches are identified, of which four are represented in the literature (Leibnizian forecasts, Lockean
A regional forecastingmodel for construction activity
Analyse régionale ; Construction ; Donnée ; Econométrie ; Etats-Unis ; Généralités sur la géographie ; Industrie ; Industrie du bâtiment ; Modèle ; Méthodologie ; Planification ; Prévision ; Recherche opérationnelle ; Travail
This paper presents a new, comprehensive and detailed model of construction activity. The model is intended primarily for forecasting applications. The model generates forecasts of new construction starts for each of the 50 states of the United
States. Forecasts are made for 29 types of structures. The paper presents evidence that the structure of the determinants of construction activity varies across regions within the United States. Thus, prior models of construction, based only on national
time-series data, may be subject to aggregation bias. Evaluation of the model'sforecasts indicates that the model outperforms simpler forecasting methods.
A Bayesian mixed estimation framework is used to examine the forecast accuracy of alternative closures of an input-output model for the Oklahoma economy. The closures correspond to textbook Type I and Type II multipliers, as well as variations
of extended IO and Type IV multipliers. Relative forecast performance of the alternative IO model closures determines which set of multipliers should be used for impact analysis. The exercise reveals differences in forecast accuracy across alternative IO model
Long-term forecasting of noncointegrated and cointegrated regional and national models
Error ; Forecast ; Model ; Regional economy ; Regression analysis ; Statistics ; Test ; United States of America
Analyse de régression ; Economie régionale ; Erreur ; Etats-Unis ; Modèle ; Prévision ; Statistique ; Test
Test multivarié: quatre modèles et cinq variables, quatre Etats. Comparaison avec un modèle national des Etats-Unis à trois variables (demande monétaire).
The purpose of this paper is to formally outline some fundamental theoretical and methodological promises of geomorphological forecasting. It is shown that there is a conceptual link between field studies of spatial structures and landscape
Généralités sur la géographie ; Modèle ; Modèle log-linéaire
Les modèles log-linéaires peuvent être utilisés pour des prévisions, où l'information sur des relations présumées stables est incorporée aux valeurs possibles futures des variables pour générer un nouveau scénario.
Test de deux modèles simulant, l'un, les effets du climat sur la productivité des principales céréales, l'autre les répercussions de la production céréalière sur le système alimentaire mondial. On conclut à la possibilité de présenter différents
Forecasting regional industrial energy demand: the ENUSIM end-use model
Demand ; Electricity ; Energy ; Energy consumption ; England ; Forecast ; Scenario ; Simulation ; United Kingdom ; West Midlands
Présentation d'un modèle qui simule la consommation d'électricité à l'échelle d'une région. Application aux Midlands de l'Ouest. Les AA. montrent en quoi ce modèle est différent des approches économétriques conventionnelles.
Seasonal forecasting of African rainfall : prediction, responses and household food security
Africa ; Correlation ; Eastern Africa ; Food security ; Forecast ; Methodology ; Model ; Multivariate analysis ; Precipitation ; Resource management ; Sahel ; Seasonal variation ; South Africa ; Vulnerability
Afrique ; Afrique de l'Est ; Afrique du Sud ; Analyse multivariée ; Corrélation ; Gestion des ressources ; Modèle ; Méthodologie ; Précipitation ; Prévision ; Sahel ; Sécurité alimentaire ; Variation saisonnière ; Vulnérabilité
This paper reviews recent developments in both climate prediction and the use of climate forecasts with an emphasis on promoting household food security. The process of compiling and distributing seasonal forecasts is outlined. Components
of operational seasonal forecasts for Africa (Sahel, East Africa and southern Africa) are examined. The utility of climate forecasts is described against the background of household vulnerability and strategies to cope with food insecurity. Climate forecasts may
The application of a simple lumped river flow forecastingmodel to hillslope soil water storage estimation
Bassin-versant ; Cycle de l'eau ; England ; Géographie physique ; Hydrologie ; Modèle ; Prévision ; Royaume-Uni ; Ruissellement
A simple lumped sequential flow forecastingmodel is applied to a 0.73 km2 catchment, located at Winford near Bristol, and it is shown that if field permeability is available, there is significant potential for the scheme to estimate the mean soil
water storage in catchment segments. In addition, the model is shown to provide reliable river flow forecasting.
Le modèle, servant de support au déploiement tactique des ressources policières, se situe à l'échelle micro. Sélection d'indicateurs. Etude de cas validant les enregistrements policiers de Pittsburgh, Pennsylvanie.
This paper presents the second part of an exploration of the application of developments made in hydraulic floodplain modelling to ungauged flood forecasting. A two dimensional finite element model, RMA-2, is applied to a 25 km floodplain reach