Competitive learning experiences : the role of weather forecasting contests in geography programs
A pedagogic strategy at all educational levels in teaching about the atmosphere, weather and climate involves in-class contests on weather forecasting. - (DWG)
Operational flood forecasting on the River Meuse using on-line identification
Operational flood forecasting on the River Meuse in Belgium is based on both hydrologic and hydraulic modelling. This paper discusses a methodology based on on-line estimation of parameters, to model short variations in the response of the main
subcatchments of the Meuse. The variation of the parameters is modelled by means of a random walk method. Some objective criteria for evaluation forecasting performance are introduced. It can be concluded that, in general, adaptive modelling improves the real
Climate ; Climatic variation ; Czechoslovakia ; Forecast;Prediction ; Greenhouse effect ; Time series
The climatological trend on the territory of Czechoslovakia is characterized according to long-year series in the last 40 years. The forecast of the climate development in the regional extent is discussed according to the scenarios based
The Box-Jenkins forecast of HIV seropositive population in Finland, 1991-1993
AIDS ; Diffusion ; Epidemic;Disease outbreak ; Finland ; Forecast;Prediction ; Health ; Statistics ; Time series
pour des études prévisionnelles. L'évolution de la diffusion du SIDA VIH ne s'est pas avérée saisonnièrement significative. Pour la période 1991-1993 une prévision à court terme de l'accroissement de la population séropositive en Finlande, en appliquant
Catastrophe ; Earthquakes ; Floods ; Forecast;Prediction ; Geographical information system ; Hurricanes ; Information ; Mass movements ; Model ; Natural hazards ; Remote sensing ; Tsunami ; Volcanic eruptions
This paper considers the role of information technology in forecasting, monitoring and managing disasters in real-time (i.e., by analysis of data as soon as they are collected). First, the advantages and pitfalls of a technological approach
the use of an additive Q matrix into the recursive algorithms for the linear parameter estimation problem, are compared. It is found that, from an operational standpoint, the use of an additive Q matrix leads to better forecasting performance. The choice
Household modelling and forecasting - dynamic approaches with use of linked Census data
avantages des modèles dynamiques et présentation de plusieurs versions modélisées de la formation et de la dissolution des ménages. Données provenant d'un échantillon de la population de l'Angleterre-Galles, recensements de 1971 et 1981. Projections 1991.
Atmospheric dynamics ; Catastrophe ; Forecast;Prediction ; Hurricane ; Indian Ocean ; Remote sensing ; Tropical zone
Après un spectaculaire recourbement de sa trajectoire, le cyclone Bella (fin janvier 1991) a épargné Maurice et La Réunion, mais ravagé l'île Rodrigues. Superbe image satellite.―(JPB)