L'A. engage une réflexion sur la question de l'anticipation du changement, et plus précisément des changements spatiaux en géoprospective. Analyse critique des démarches, théories et pratiques empiriques permettant d'estimer les changements futurs
, probables ou possibles. L'accent est mis sur la signification du changement spatial et sur la question de l'émergence spatiale. Proposition de nouvelles perspectives de recherche, alliant quantitatif et qualitatif.
2012
[b1] Laboratoire Étude des Structures, des Processus d’Adaptation et des Changements de l’Espace, UMR 7300 CNRS, Univ., Nice-Sophia-Antipolis, France
Adapting to climate change in South Africa: commercial farmers’ perception of and response to changing climate
Adaptation ; Afrique du Sud ; Agriculture ; Changement climatique ; Comportement des agriculteurs ; Perception
Adaptation ; Agriculture ; Climatic change ; Farmer behaviour ; Perception ; South Africa
Understanding how and why farmers have responded to past climate change is a necessary step to informing how to support current and future adaptation. This paper explores commercial farmers’ perceptions and responses to shifting climates
in the Little Brak River area along South Africa’s south coast. It evaluates changes in climate experienced in the area by comparing quantitative statistical analyses of temperature, rainfall and wind data recorded from 1967 to 2009, with qualitative historical
narratives and formulated perceptions of change for the same period. - (AJC)
This paper builds on previous geographical and social science work at the boundaries of climate change by(re)asserting the significance of the territoriality of the national state in global climate negotiations. Using post-political consensus
as a theoretical framework and drawing upon examples from climate change negotiations like Kyoto and Copenhagen, it argues that it is too premature to fetishize the consensus of, and collectivism between national states in global climate politics. As geographers
, ‘territoriality’, both as a material and discursive device, is fundamental in, and constitutive of, how we interpret and understand climate change and the politics thereof.
Landscape ; Landscape analysis ; Landscape change ; Landscape dynamics ; Landscape ecology ; Madrid ; Spain ; change index ; ecological change ; land use ; landscape mosaics
Landscape is organised in mosaics: sets of patches with a defined pattern of boundaries through which patches interact. Changes in patches cause changes in mosaics. Landscape change has two components: a quantitative one, referring to the areas
in which changes happen, and a qualitative one, referring to the degree of similarity among the mosaics substituting each other. The quantitative component informs on the magnitude of the change: the total area in which landscape mosaics have changed
; the qualitative one informs on the significance thereof: the ecological differences between the mosaics substituting each other. This paper presents an index for quantifying landscape change and for discriminating between magnitude and significance therein
. It was tested by study of changes in the landscape mosaics in Madrid, Spain. Results show that the index developed is useful for this purpose. This enables objective comparison of different landscape changes presenting different combinations of magnitude
Agriculture ; Countryside ; Malaysia ; Post-productivism ; Rural change ; Rural development ; Way of life
The literature of change in rural Malaysia during the past 40 years is used to identify key features of such change. Processes of rural changes will continue and their complexity will reflect cultural and technological evolutions that affect
L'injonction actuelle de penser l'adaptation au changement environnemental laisse relativement ouvert l'enjeu de la concertation. Les AA. partent de l'éventail des solutions possibles, pour se concentrer ensuite sur les pratiques réflexives à mettre
en oeuvre en aménagement afin de promouvoir une approche équilibrée de la concertation face au changement environnemental.
Environmental determinism is resurfacing in human geography particularly when climate change is the topic of investigation. In this paper, the AA. trace this revival and link it to the dominance of Earth System Science (ESS) and the institutional
process of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the climate change research community. In particular, they want to show how findings coming out of ESS and communicated through the IPCC create a discourse of hierarchical scale
and downward causation that prescribes agency to climate. The AA. suggest that viewing scale as a social construction opens up for the analysis of climate change and its societal effects and interpretations outside the official script of the inevitability
or environmental changes of interest. ACE encourages an eclectic use of methods, models, and theoretical ideas. By not privileging particular theories or explanatory factors in advance, ACE enables researchers to interrogate the plausibility of different causal
influences, including local environmental changes that may be related to much wider changes in climate. Likewise, behaviors or practices that may be of value in light of anticipated environmental changes can be studied without their presuming to be caused
by these changes or by changes in climate per se. Research on coastal mangrove planting for storm protection in the Philippines and upland tree planting in St. Lucia are used to illustrate these arguments.
Introducing new measures of accuracy for land-use/cover change modeling
The aim of this paper is to introduce new measures of accuracy, namely the HOC (hits to observed change), MOC (misses to observed change) and FOC (false alarms to observed change) ratio indices, and discuss their potential relevance to the broad
field of land-use/cover (LUC) change modeling. Firstly, the paper reviews existing validation parameters and presents a conceptual analysis of these parameters, including the 3 proposed new indices. And secondly, the paper discusses the potentials
of these indices relative to the current important issues of LUC change modeling accuracy assessment.
Climate change : impacts on electricity markets in Western Europe
Changement climatique ; Changement global ; Climatologie appliquée ; Demande ; Electricité ; Energie ; Europe ; Europe de l'Ouest ; Impact ; Offre ; Simulation ; Siècle 21
Applied climatology ; Climatic change ; Demand ; Electricity ; Energy ; Europe ; Global change ; Impact ; Simulation ; Supply ; Twenty-first century ; Western Europe
Le changement climatique attendu pour le 21ème siècle n'aurait qu'un effet net assez limité sur le marché de l'électricité en Europe occidentale (niveau de la demande, potentiel de production hydraulique, refroidissement des centrales
Ecology ; Environmental change ; Knowledge ; Man-environment relations ; Power ; Resilience ; Social change ; Social sciences ; Social theory
The concept of resilience in ecology has been expanded into a framework to analyse human-environment dynamics. The extension of resilience notions to society has important limits, particularly its conceptualization of social change. The paper argues
Influence path and effect of climate change on geopolitical pattern
Bio-énergie ; Carbone ; Changement climatique ; Energie ; Géopolitique ; Impact ; Marché du carbone ; Monde ; Pays développés
Bioenergy ; Carbon ; Carbon market ; Climatic change ; Developed countries ; Energy ; Geopolitics ; Impact ; World
With the development of politicization, climate change has become the significant driving force that can influence the evolution of geopolitical pattern. Driven by climate change, new changes have taken place in the evolution of geopolitical pattern
. Measures, sphere and contents of geopolitical contention changed dramatically, carbon emission permits, carbon tariff and new energy technology turned into the key points of geopolitical contention. Climate change acts on the evolution of geopolitical
advantage of new energy technologies will occupy the leading position in future’s climate change negotiations and geopolitical competition.
Capitalism ; Climatic change ; Human geography ; Human impact ; Modernism ; Policy ; Research ; Scale
Anthropogenic climate change is a modern problem in its historical origins and discursive framing. Modernity separates people from climate change in a number of ways. Recent research in human geography routinely combines both deconstructive impulses
to suggest how to reframe climate change and climate change response in two main ways: elaborating human and non-human continuities and differences, and identifying and harnessing vernacular capacities.
Examen de la valeur des approches de Deleuze et Guattari appliquées aux relations compliquées entre mondialisation, changement climatique, capitalisme et populations aborigènes. S'appuyant sur le concept de mondialisation sauvage selon B. Neilson
, l'A. étudie la biopolitique du changement climatique et du capitalisme tels qu'ils sont expérimentés sur cette côte du Nicaragua. Les forces immanentes du capitalisme ont été déstabilisées par l'ouragan Felix.
Global changes in extreme events : regional and seasonal dimension
Changement climatique ; Changement global ; Climat ; Espace-temps ; Extrême climatique ; Monde ; Pluie torrentielle ; Précipitation ; Siècle 21 ; Température ; Tendance du climat
Climate ; Climate extreme ; Climatic change ; Climatic trend ; Global change ; Heavy rain ; Precipitation ; Space time ; Temperature ; Twenty-first century ; World
Water quality changes in lake McKenzie, Fraser Island, Australia : a palaeolimnological approach
This study uses a palaeoecological approach to identify biological and sediment changes in Lake McKenzie, Fraser Island, Australia. A sediment core was extracted from the lake and the fossil diatom assemblage and sediment particle size analysed
. Inferred environmental changes were detected throughout the core that pre-date European impacts. The likely causes of these changes are climatic oscillations. Further dating is required to establish a detailed chronological record and identify the timing
of detected environmental change at Lake McKenzie.
Earthworks : the geopolitical visions of climate change cartoons
Analyse du contenu ; Changement climatique ; Communication ; Connaissance ; Dessin humoristique ; Géographie politique ; Géopolitique ; Média ; Pouvoir ; Réchauffement climatique ; Visualisation
Climatic change ; Climatic warming ; Communication ; Geopolitics ; Knowledge ; Political geography ; Power
L’A. analyse la capacité des dessins humoristiques politiques à représenter de manière efficace la géopolitique du changement climatique. Il étudie ceux présentés dans le cadre du concours international de 2008 intitulé « Earthworks ». Il explique
pouvoir et de connaissance dans lesquelles se situent la communication et les débats autour du changement climatique.
Forest composition : more altered by future climate change than by Euro-American settlement in western New York and Pennsylvania ?
Action anthropique ; Biodiversité ; Biogéographie ; Changement climatique ; Dioxyde de carbone ; Distribution spatiale ; Essence forestière ; Etats-Unis ; Forêt ; Inventaire ; Modèle ; New York State ; Pennsylvania ; Scénario
Biodiversity ; Biogeography ; Carbon dioxide ; Climatic change ; Forest ; Human impact ; Inventory ; Model ; New York State ; Pennsylvania ; Scenario ; Spatial distribution ; Tree species ; United States of America
The amount of forest compositional change that occurred due to Euro-American settlement over the past two centuries is compared with changes simulated to occur in the future under 2X and 3.5X atmospheric CO2 scenarios. The comparison employs data
the 4 study areas disagree with previous pollen-based estimates that suggested a greater relative influence of a 2X CO2 climate change, but do indicate that a 3.5X CO2 climate change may cause greater changes in forest composition than has already
Forest line changes after 1960 in a Norwegian mountain region - implications for the future
Années 1960-2002 ; Biogéographie ; Changement climatique ; Cheptel ; Forêt ; Limite supérieure de la forêt ; Montagne ; Norvège ; Norvège du Sud ; Pâturage ; Réchauffement climatique ; Utilisation du sol
Biogeography ; Climatic change ; Climatic warming ; Forest ; Land use ; Livestock ; Mountain ; Norway ; Pastureland ; Southern Norway ; Tree line
The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of land use and climate on forest line changes at regional and local scale in eastern Jotunheimen, a mountain region in southern Norway. It is shown that these forest line changes can be related
to changes in livestock grazing pressure between the 1960s and 2002. In contrast to other European mountain regions, highly relevant climate variables such as the triterm (the summer months) have not changed in the studied region. Therefore, land-use change