Bolsa Família and the shift in Lula’s electoral base, 2002–2006. A Reply to Bohn
In a recent article published in the Latin American Research Review, Simone Bohn analyzed electoral results and survey data from Brazil to contest several theses concerning the reelection of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2006. In particular
, Bohn asserted that beneficiaries of Bolsa Família, a conditional cash transferprogram that was reaching eleven million families at the time of the 2006 election, were already supporters of Lula in 2002, and therefore the program could not have
overestimate actual electoral support for Lula, probably as a result of well-known reporting biases. Reanalysis of Bohn’s data as well as analysis of more reliable surveys suggest that there were indeed significant changes in voting patterns between 2002
An earlier article (Bohn 2011) maintained that significant changes in Lula’s electoral base took place prior to his reelection; other social policies, such as the Benefício de Prestação Continuada, contributed significantly to the changes in Lula’s