Without power ? Landslide inventories in the face of climate change

Auteur(s) et Affiliation(s)

KORUP, O.

Inst. of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Univ., Potsdam, Allemagne

GÖRÜM, T.

Dep. of Earth System Analysis, Fac of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Univ. of Twente, Enschede, Pays-Bas

Yıldız Technical Univ., Natural Science Research Center, Istanbul, Turquie

HAYAKAWA, Y.

Center for Spatial Information Science, Univ., Tokyo, Japon

Description :
The results obtained with simple Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations of statistical models show that significant changes to total volumes contained in such inventories may be masked by statistically indistinguishable scaling parameters, critically depending on, among others, the size of the largest of landslides recorded. Conversely, comparable model parameter values may obscure significant, i.e. more than twofold, changes to landslide occurrence, and thus inferred rates of hillslope denudation and sediment delivery to drainage networks. A time series of some of Earth's largest mass movements reveals clustering near and partly before the last glacial-interglacial transition and a distinct step-over from white noise to temporal clustering around this period. However, elucidating whether this is a distinct signal of first-order climate-change impact on slope stability or simply coincides with a transition from short-term statistical noise to long-term steady-state conditions remains an important research challenge.

Type de document :
Article de périodique

Source :
Earth surface processes and landforms, issn : 0197-9337, 2012, vol. 37, n°. 1, p. 92-99, nombre de pages : 8, Références bibliographiques : 1 p.

Date :
2012

Editeur :
Pays édition : Royaume-Uni, Chichester, Wiley

Langue :
Anglais