Risk assessment of dengue virus amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections

Auteur(s) et Affiliation(s)

THOMAS, S.M.

Dep. of Biogeography, Univ, Bayreuth, Allemagne

FISCHER, D.

Dep. of Biogeography, Univ, Bayreuth, Allemagne

FLEISCHMANN, S.

Dep. of Biogeography, Univ, Bayreuth, Allemagne

BITTNER, T.

Dep. of Biogeography, Univ, Bayreuth, Allemagne

BEIERKUHNLEIN, C.

Dep. of Biogeography, Univ, Bayreuth, Allemagne

Description :
The AA. use the temperature constraints for virus amplification within the vector Aedes aegypti from 2 laboratory experiments. They transfer these findings to the changing European climate based on data provided from a regional climate model (COSMO-CLM; A1B and B1 scenario). Daily mean temperature were averaged for the time-steps 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 in order to reduce natural variability but rather point out climatic trends for risk assessments. For both scenarios the strongest increase of temperature is projected after mid-century. Results indicate a growing threat of virus amplification in Europe especially towards the end of this century. Larger parts of the Mediterranean will be at risk. The southwest of the Iberian Peninsular appears to be especially threatened. Even in some parts of Central Europe, such as Southwest Germany, dengue virus amplification can no longer be excluded at the end of the century.

Type de document :
Article de périodique

Source :
Erdkunde, issn : 0014-0015, 2011, vol. 65, n°. 2, p. 137-150, nombre de pages : 14, Références bibliographiques : 3 p.

Date :
2011

Editeur :
Pays édition : Allemagne, Kleve, Boss

Langue :
Anglais