The attempt to validate the applicability of two climate models for the evaluation of heat wave related mortality in Warsaw in the 21st century

Auteur(s) et Affiliation(s)



Description :
In the analysis of the potential of applying models to estimate threat of heat waves in Poland up to the end of the 21st century, two discrepant climate change models : the MPI-M-REMO-ECHAM5 and DMI-HIRHAM5-ARPEGE have been used. In this regard, the maximum air temperature was analysed. The accepted definition of a heat wave was 3 and 5 consecutive days of temperatures ≥30°C. According to the more realistic ARPEGE model, after 2040, the number of 3 day heatwaves will rise by 370% and after 2070 - 460%. In Warsaw, the extent of possible mortality rates due to cardiovascular disease in heat waves amounted to +134% in the period after 2070 according to the ARPEGE model.


Type de document :
Article de périodique

Source :
Geographia polonica, issn : 0016-7282, 2013, vol. 86, n°. 4, p. 295-311, nombre de pages : 17, Références bibliographiques : 2 p.

Date :
2013

Editeur :
Pays édition : Pologne, Warszawa, Państwowe Wydawnictwo Naukowe