Soil erosion under the impacts of future climate change : Assessing the statistical significance of future changes and the potential on-site and off-site problems

Auteur(s) et Affiliation(s)



Description :
In this study, the AA. develop simple methodologies to assess the statistical significance of future soil erosion rates based on comparing relative changes to natural variability around present-day rates, and determine whether these changes may be problematic by comparing absolute soil erosion rates to tolerable thresholds. A modelling study across 6 hillslopes in Northern Ireland is conducted to demonstrate these methodologies, using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. The direct impacts of climate change are modelled using statistical downscaling methods and a simple sensitivity analysis in the case of sub-daily precipitation data, whilst a scenario approach is taken in order to model the indirect impacts of changing land use and management. Results indicate a mix of soil erosion increases and decreases, depending on which scenarios are considered, and off-site problems likely to be more severe under the impacts of climate change.


Type de document :
Article de périodique

Source :
Catena (Giessen), issn : 0341-8162, 2013, vol. 109, p. 234-246, nombre de pages : 13, Références bibliographiques : 1 p.

Date :
2013

Editeur :
Pays édition : Allemagne, Cremlingen-Destedt, Catena