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Modeling policy and agricultural decisions in Afghanistan

Auteur(s) et Affiliation(s)

WIDENER, M.J.
Dept. of Geography, Univ., Buffalo, Etats-Unis
BAR-YAM, Y.
New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, Etats-Unis
GROS, A.
New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, Etats-Unis
METCALF, S.S.
Dept. of Geography, Univ., Buffalo, Etats-Unis


Description :
This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates policy scenarios to characterize how the production of poppy can be dampened and replaced with licit crops over time. The model is initialized with spatial data, including transportation network and satellite-derived land use data. It shows that boundary-level interventions, such as targeted trafficking blockades at border locations, are critical in reducing the attractiveness of growing this illicit crop. The principle of least effort implies that interventions decrease to a minimal non-regressive point, leading to the prediction that increases in insurgency or other changes are likely to lead to worsening conditions, and improvements require substantial jumps in intervention resources.


Type de document :
Article de périodique

Source :
GeoJournal, issn : 0343-2521, 2013, vol. 78, n°. 4, p. 591-599, nombre de pages : 9, Références bibliographiques : 31 ref.

Date :
2013

Editeur :
Pays édition : Allemagne, Heidelberg, Springer

Langue :
Anglais
Droits :
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