Probabilistic sinkhole modelling for hazard assessment

Auteur(s) et Affiliation(s)



Description :
This paper presents a method of quantitatively developing and independently testing sinkhole susceptibility and hazard models in a 50 km2 sector of the Ebro Valley evaporite karst in northeast Spain. Three genetic types of sinkholes have been mapped in the floodplain and a terrace surface. Sinkhole susceptibility models have been elaborated analysing the statistical relationships between the sinkholes of the 2005 inventory and a set of potential conditioning factors. The independent evaluation (validation) of the susceptibility models by means of several strategies (random, sequentially excluded, and temporal) has allowed the AA. to select the most significant variables for each sinkhole type and assess quantitatively the quality of models which are reasonable for the 3 sinkholes types. The best susceptibility model has been transformed into a hazard map considering the frequency of sinkholes that occurred in each susceptibility class between 2005 and 2006, as well as their average size. The susceptibility and hazard models obtained could be used as an objective basis for the application of mitigation measures, either of preventive or corrective nature.


Type de document :
Article de périodique

Source :
Earth surface processes and landforms, issn : 0197-9337, 2009, vol. 34, n°. 3, p. 437-452, nombre de pages : 16, Références bibliographiques : 1,5 p.

Date :
2009

Editeur :
Pays édition : Royaume-Uni, Chichester, Wiley