Próba prognozowania rocznej temperatury powietrza w Szczecinie za pomocą wyrównywania wykładniczego

Essai de prévision de la température moyenne annuelle de l'air à l'aide de la technique de lissage exponentiel

Auteurs :
GREGORCZYK, A.
MICHALSKA, B.

Description :
The work described here has sought to apply the exponential smoothing technique in the description of changes in mean annual air temperatures noted from Szczecin in the years 1949–2008, as well as to attempt to predict the feature in question over the next decade. The starting point for the research was a time series for annual air temperature calculated from monthly values obtained from the meteorological station at Szczecin-Dąbie. The exponential smoothing method after Brown was applied, with use therein made of both additive and multiplicative models, with a linear trend and an 8-year periodic component. It emerged that the exponential smoothing method is effective when it comes to predicting mean annual air temperature over the 60-year period under study. – (BJ)


Type de document :
Article de périodique

Source :
Przegląd geograficzny, issn : 0033-2143, 2011, vol. 83, n°. 3, p. 385-393, nombre de pages : 9, Références bibliographiques : 16 ref.

Date :
2011

Editeur :
Pays édition : Pologne, Warszawa, Państwowe Wydawnictwo Naukowe