A regional forecasting model for construction activity

Auteurs :
THOMAS, R. W.
STEKLER, H. O.

Description :
This paper presents a new, comprehensive and detailed model of construction activity. The model is intended primarily for forecasting applications. The model generates forecasts of new construction starts for each of the 50 states of the United States. Forecasts are made for 29 types of structures. The paper presents evidence that the structure of the determinants of construction activity varies across regions within the United States. Thus, prior models of construction, based only on national time-series data, may be subject to aggregation bias. Evaluation of the model's forecasts indicates that the model outperforms simpler forecasting methods.


Type de document :
Article de périodique

Source :
Regional science and urban economics Amsterdam, 1983, vol. 13, n°. 4, p. 557-577, Références bibliographiques : 23 réf.

Date :
1983