Recherche d'une politique de gestion des stocks d'eau de barrages-réservoirs en vue de soutenir les étiages. 1. Elaboration d'un modèle alterné annuel apports-déficits

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Description :
The low flows and conditional variability of availability of water call for carry-over procedures (reservoir capacity is sometimes greater than the mean available water). It is not possible to predict future sequence of flows, thus the carry-over rule is a statistical decision-making tool. The analysis of flow data provides us with statistical measures to generate long series of synthetic inflows associated with summer deficits. A simplification has been introduced by choosing only the values which are absolutely necessary for optimal management research: available water volumes and reserve volumes for a flow threshold. Yearly alternate periods of excess and deficiency of water are defined by the values above and below a threshold of flow discharge at a location gage named objective point, where the reservoir effects are to be estimated. Yearly periods are described by water volumes, either inflows into reservoirs, or deficits below various thresholds of summer flow discharges. Marginal and conditional probability distributions of these volumes and the physical laws which mark their bounds and relationships were estimated on the basis of 31 years of daily flow records. The synthetic simulated series was compared to records of historical levels (since 1863). Extreme event such as sequences of dry years, have return periods of comparable magnitude.

Type de document :
Article de périodique

Source :
Journal of hydrology Amsterdam, 1983, vol. 60, n°. 1-4, p. 59-79, Références bibliographiques : 6 réf.

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